Five for Friday – May 1, 2026

Bull, Sentiment, AI + Jobs, Thirds, and On This Day

1. Bull

With stocks back at all-time highs, let’s attempt to size up this bull market. Looking at the 12 major bull runs in the post-WWII era, the average length was 1,905 days, with an average return of 177%. Today’s bull market is 1,297 days old and has seen a return of ~100%. So just on the numbers, there’s little to suggest this one is long in the tooth. But reaching the average length and magnitude is far from guaranteed, so how will we know when things are starting to peter out? Bull runs all end differently, but there are commonalities to watch for – rising interest rates (watch oil prices), narrowing leadership (fewer stocks rising), weakening earnings trends, and euphoric sentiment (e.g., IPO/ M&A boom, blowoff top, widespread bullishness). So far, there is little evidence to suggest that a top is imminent…but in year four of a bull market and with AI stocks ripping higher, it is the right time to start applying a closer eye to things.

2. Sentiment

Despite said all-time highs, consumer sentiment remains in the dumps. In fact, recent consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan, one of the most-watched surveys, just hit its lowest level since 1950. And while this might reflect something more alarming about the state of the world, it is important for investors to recognize the counterintuitive way sentiment moves stocks. The market doesn’t inherently reward optimism or punish pessimism, it rewards surprise relative to expectations. So when sentiment reaches extremes, expected returns tend to move in the opposite direction. In fact, the weakest 10% of consumer sentiment readings were followed by the strongest average stock market performance (by far) over the subsequent year. Bull markets climb walls of worry, and while dour sentiment could still spill into the real economy, negative sentiment has historically tended to be positive for investors.  

3. AI + Jobs

The market’s excitement about AI and its speed of improvement have renewed job market worries. Front and center is the software sector, where stocks are in a bear market. Products like Claude Code are rapidly reducing barriers to entry, and the employment outlook (as portrayed in the media) is dire. But today, job postings for software are up 16% y/y to their highest since 2022. So, what gives? History again shows a counterintuitive pattern: when a new technology makes workers more productive and output (like software) cheaper, the addressable market expands, demand rises, and more firms and workers enter the field. This phenomenon, called Jevons paradox, is a reminder that technological change often brings more opportunity than we initially expect…even when the headlines and narrative feel unsettling.  

4. Thirds

Yesterday, we closed the book on the first four months of 2026. Over the last 75 years, there have been exactly 50 times that the market was positive through the end of April and 25 that the market was negative. For the 50 positive periods, the average rest-of-year return was 11% and was positive 90% of the time (only once was the market positive through April and down for the full year). For the 25 negative periods, the average rest-of-year return was 2% and was positive 48% of the time. Momentum matters, and despite turmoil, this is a bull market until proven otherwise.    

5. On This Day

in 1931, the Empire State Building was opened to the public. It held the title of world’s tallest building for roughly four decades but in two years will see its height nearly tripled by the Jeddah Tower (3,300 feet) in Saudi Arabia.  

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This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Market and economic statistics, unless otherwise cited, are from data provider FactSet.

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